Sunday, August 12, 2007

Thoughts on Ames
W. Mitt Romney easily won the Iowa Ames Straw Poll, as expected. Here are the results:

1. W. Mitt Romney: 32 percent
2. Mike Huckabee: 18 percent
3. Sam Brownback: 15 percent
4. Tom Tancredo: 14 percent
5. Ron Paul: 9 percent
6. Tommy Thompson: 7 percent
7. Fred Thompson: 1 percent
8. Rudy Giuliani: 1 percent
9. Duncan Hunter: 1 percent
10. John McCain: less than 1 percent
11. John Cox: Less than 1 percent

Some thoughts: First, the Republican nomination is still anyone's race, especially with Giuliani leading polls in various places and nationally, Thompson, the ghost candidate waiting to emerge, and Romney now winning Ames and leading in polls in New Hampshire. But Ames may not mean a whole lot when you consider that McCain was campaigning in New Hampshire and Giuliani was hanging out at home in New York [Giuliani is currently second in most Iowa caucus polls].
Huckabee coming in second and Brownback third is interesting but not a surprise. A former Baptist minister, Huckabee is good one-on-one and Baptists have always done well at this event. Pastor Pat Robertson won it in 1988, scaring the bejesus out of everyone at the time. Brownback reportedly spent more than $300k on the event - a huge amount of money before this campaign cycle. Tommy Thompson is expected to end his campaign. There is no word on anyone else dropping out but there are rumors that Hunter is probably a goner, too.
Tancredo was the victim of a political dirty trick, reported here: ["Hoax aimed at Tancredo's straw poll chances"]
. No word on whether the 500 people targeted showed or not. But, if they didn't, the campaign might be able to claim that it affected the results: Tancredo's fourth place finish was 230 votes shy of Brownback's third. A Tancredo third place finish would have probably made big news.
Kudos to the NYT and others for including John Cox in any of their results. Cox has been forwarding himself as the Reagan candidate and has been getting hammered all over the Web for being delusional. No information on Alan Keyes' write-in efforts.

Adam Reilly of the Boston Phoenix has his take here: ["And the results ..."]. I think Adam is right on Ron Paul, who turned in an impressive 9 percent showing at Ames, even though he is considered a "fringe" candidate. The Atlantic blog has some details: ["Ames: The Romney Victory"].

Speaking of Cox, he has a rock video out now about illegal immigration: ["John Cox video"].
I find it interesting that Cox, while criticizing illegals trying to flee to a better life, at the end says we should only accept skilled immigrants who are willing to become Americans. No disagreement there. But, what about all the thousands and thousands of Americans who can be trained to do the jobs Cox's acceptable immigrants would do? We don't need skilled immigrants; we need the people who are already here trained to do the jobs the marketplace needs filled. In actuality, the jobs which the marketplace needs filled - many of them currently filled by illegals - won't be done by Americans because the pay isn't good enough. I know Americans who will clean office buildings and pick lettuce if the price was right. They just won't do it for $3 an hour.
What is also interesting is that while chatting with Cox after his interview at a local radio station back in 2006, I randomly stated that I thought it was funny when Keyes was filmed by MTV in a moshpit back in 2000 [We were all talking about how great the New Hampshire primary was and all the fun things that happen covering campaigns]. I said, the event and coverage humanized and normalized the candidate. And it was a lot of fun to watch. Cox scoffed at my comments, stating that such activity was an undignified stunt not worthy of the office of President of the United States. But, somehow, a silly music video, which was probably done without the permission of Jimmy Page and Robert Plant, is dignified? OK, whatever. We all know that parody is allowed under copyright laws, but this kinda isn't a parody. It is probably a violation of the copyright law. Which would make it illegal and against the terms of agreement for YouTube. How undignified is that?

The Village Voice has this biting piece on Giuliani: ["Rudy Giuliani's Five Big Lies About 9/11"].

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