Tuesday, August 17, 2004

Quick Unity Campaign update:
Yesterday afternoon, I had some interesting back and forth with John Pearce, the main person behind The Unity Campaign, in reaction to my latest update about his group: [Falsely attacking Ralph Nader] .
Not surprisingly, Pearce took great offense to the post about his efforts, calling it "uncivil" and labeling my opinion that his group was profiting from attacking Nader as "slander." In closing, he challenged me to prove a "test of character" as to whether I would alter the offending words. Pearce also said he would respond with a counter-analysis of my thoughts about his map.
After explaining some legal terms to him - and the broader definition of the word "profit" - I modified the post in an effort to stem any frivolous lawsuits and to be more civil to the people ruthlessly attacking Nader [Hey John, how about giving some of that civility back to Ralph, eh?].

Interestingly enough, on the map front, there have been some more changes that make John Kerry's Electoral outlook even brighter than on Thursday when I posted the post.
In Colorado, a Survey USA poll out yesterday has Bush and Kerry in a 46 to 46 tie, with Nader not included in the poll. "Other" received 4 percent and 2 percent were undecided. However, since Survey USA allows people to look at their data with .pdfs posted on the Web, you can find out some interesting information about those people polled. For example, voters polled in the Other category were described as "probable" voters, black or Native American, female, registered as independents, leaning moderate to liberal, and in the 18 to 34 age bracket. The 4 percent could be for Nader or Libertarian Michael Badnarik. Nine percent of Democrats say they are voting for Bush. These latest numbers move the state from "slight-lean Bush" to the "toss up" category.
In an Aug. 11 Research 2000 poll, Kerry is within 3 percent of Bush in North Carolina, a supposedly solid red state. This is huge, and may be showing the positive effects of John Edwards to the ticket [Bush 48, Kerry 45, Nader, who won't be on the ballot in the state, received 0 percent]. A Survey USA poll from Aug. 2 out of Tennessee [missed by everyone], shows Kerry within 2 points of Bush: Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 0. This poll moves the state from solid red to slight lean Bush.
On the bad for Kerry side of things, there is a new poll out from New Mexico which moves the state from slight-lean Kerry to toss up - but Nader isn't even included in the poll. In a Rasmussen Reports poll from Aug. 15, Bush and Kerry are tied with 46 percent, with Badnarik gaining 4 percent. Nader is at 0 percent. What a spoiler that Badnarik is for potentially stealing 4 percent from Bush [tongue firmly planted in cheek]! What is he thinking? Isn't he hurting the conservative cause [That's sarcasm, folks]? This latest poll costs Kerry 5 EC votes but it has nothing to do with Nader.
So, let's update: Combined with my revisions from Thursday, the dynamic in The Unity Campaign's battleground map goes from a 254-252 virtual tie - to a win for Kerry with 291 Electoral College votes. Bush should be at 181 and 66 should be ruled as toss ups. And again, there is no Nader factor.
Now, as has been stated many times before, this could all change. But we won't be holding our breath to see if Pearce updates his map to truly reflect the accurate polling data and the non-impact of Nader's campaign. We may consider writing a more extensive piece about The Unity Campaign and other Nader-hating orgs sometime in the future.

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