The NYT has this very cool delegate calculator showing what percentages of the remaining primaries and super delegates both Hillary and Obama need to win the Democratic nomination: ["Delegate Calculator"].
They show results based on each candidate's best result, as well as an average of the results.
For example, if Hillary gets election returns close to her best state - Arkansas, 77 percent - she will still need to win every state by that amount AND need 32 percent of the remaining super delegates to get the nom. If Obama can win the rest of the primaries by 53 percent, he will only need 22 percent of the leftover super delegates to win.
If this data is correct - and I have no reason to believe that it isn't - Hillary can't win. It's completely unrealistic to believe that she can. This means that she has no reason to stay in the race at this point unless she is a) gunning for the VP slot with Obama, which isn't going to happen, b) is hoping for a brokered convention where she can deny Obama the nom, or c) going to help McCain - willing or unwillingly - sink Obama so she can run against Huckabee or Romney in 2012.
As I have said for more than two years, it is going to be brokered convention. It's going to be mess. And I'm going to friggin' enjoy every minute of it!
They show results based on each candidate's best result, as well as an average of the results.
For example, if Hillary gets election returns close to her best state - Arkansas, 77 percent - she will still need to win every state by that amount AND need 32 percent of the remaining super delegates to get the nom. If Obama can win the rest of the primaries by 53 percent, he will only need 22 percent of the leftover super delegates to win.
If this data is correct - and I have no reason to believe that it isn't - Hillary can't win. It's completely unrealistic to believe that she can. This means that she has no reason to stay in the race at this point unless she is a) gunning for the VP slot with Obama, which isn't going to happen, b) is hoping for a brokered convention where she can deny Obama the nom, or c) going to help McCain - willing or unwillingly - sink Obama so she can run against Huckabee or Romney in 2012.
As I have said for more than two years, it is going to be brokered convention. It's going to be mess. And I'm going to friggin' enjoy every minute of it!
1 comment:
Over the past three months...
Hillary has called Obama a plagiarist, a right-winger, a liar, a left-winger, an elitist, a snob and not white working class. She sold her soul to Richard Mellon Scaife, Fox News and Rush Limbaugh. She played the race card, the gender card, the hick card and the gun card. She alienated the black community, the activist base, economists and about half the United States that “didn’t matter”. She ran ads featuring ominous 3am phone calls, the great depression and Osama bin Laden. She threatened to obliterate Iran and name dropped 9/11. She gulped beer, pumped gas and took shots of whiskey. She loaned herself $11 million dollars and racked-up an additional $10 million in debt. She offered her base an (at best) $30 gas tax holiday while simultaneously begging them for $50 donations.
And what does she have to show for it?
A 2 delegate loss.
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