Pre-debate Poll Watch:
As promised, here is the last polls posted before the debate last night.
As of Oct. 1, according to most Electoral College vote watchers, John Kerry is behind President George W. Bush:
* The Hedgehog Report has it Bush 296, Kerry 242.
* Electoral-College.com has it Bush 296, Kerry 238, tied 4.
* Election Projection has it Bush 295, Kerry 243.
* Samboni has it Bush 295, Kerry 197, Undecided 46.
Is Nader impacting Kerry?
For months, we have been tracking whether independent candidate Ralph Nader is having any potentially impact on Kerry's numbers. In almost all of the polling, he isn't: Kerry either wins the states with or without Nader. In just a few polls through the entire month of September is Nader a factor:
* Colorado: A Rocky Mountain News poll from Sept. 17 showed a one point Bush lead: 45, Kerry 44, Nader 3, and 6 percent Undecided. However, the poll did not ask voters who they would support with only two candidates.
* New Hampshire: A Research 2000 poll from Sept. 23 Bush and Kerry are tied with 46 percent. Nader has 2 with 6 percent Undecided. Without Nader in the poll, Kerry gains a point: 47 to 46. Nader received 1 percent of the Democrat vote. Nader is on the ballot in N.H. but even if he weren't, Kerry would still lose the presidency based on the current polling.
* West Virginia: An ARG poll shows Bush and Kerry tied with 46. Nader has 2 percent with 1 percent for other and 6 Undecided. Nader earns 2 percent of the Democrat vote and 1 percent of the Republican vote while Bush gets 21 of the Democratic vote.
Nader helping Kerry?
In at least
* Wisconsin: A Sept. 16 ARG poll shows a Bush Kerry tie: 46 to 46, with Nader taking 1 percent. However, Nader earns 1 percent of the Republican vote and 0 percent of the Democrat vote. Democrats voting for Bush? 11 percent.
Democrats abandoning Kerry
While Democrats scream about the Nader candidacy, there is a larger problem they refuse to address: The fact that droves of Democrats are backing Bush. In poll after poll, registered Democrats are abandoning their own nominee even in the tight swing states.
* Alabama - Sept. 16 ARG: Bush 54, Kerry 40, Nader 1. 15 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
* Alaska - Sept. 12 ARG: Bush 57, Kerry 30, Nader 5, Others 3. 12 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
* Arizona - Sept. 23 Survey USA: Bush 54, Kerry 43, Other 2 [Nader is not on the ballot here], Undecided 1. 16 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
* Arkansas - Sept. 29 Survey USA: Bush 53, Kerry 44, Other 2, Undecided 2. 11 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
* Colorado - Sept. Survey USA: Bush 52, Kerry 44, Other 3, Undecided 2. 8 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
* Oregon - Sept. : Bush 48, Kerry 47, Other 3 [Nader not on the ballot], 2 Undecided. 9 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
* Pennsylvania - Sept. 19: Kerry 47, Bush 46, Nader 1, Other 1, Undecided 5. 11 percent voting for Bush. A Qunnipiac poll from Sept. 26: Kerry 49, Bush 46. 9 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
* Tennessee - Sept. 23: Bush, 55 Kerry 41, Other 2, Undecided 2. Democrats voting for Bush? 9 percent.
* Texas - Sept. 12 Survey USA: Bush 58, Kerry 37, Other 2 [Nader is not on the ballot], Undecided 3. 13 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
* Virginia - Sept. 23 Survey USA: Bush 53, Kerry 42, Other 3 [Nader is not on the ballot], Undecided 2. 9 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
* Iowa: A Research 2000 poll from Sept. 22 Bush has 47, Kerry has 45, Nader 2, with 6 percent Undecided. In a two-way race: Bush leads 47 to 46 with 7 percent Undecided. Deep inside the poll, other numbers were revealed. Nader earns the same amount of Republican votes as Democratic votes: 1 percent. At the same time, 7 percent of Democrats plan on voting for Bush.
The Badnarik Factor:
In more states than Nader, Libertarian presidential candidate Michael Badnarik could be having an effect on Bush's poll position.