Daily Kos August Straw Poll

Yikes, more than 29,000 respondents. Wow. That's bigger than a convention.
Here are the results: Edwards 34 [down from a peak of 40 in April], Obama 30 [back up from lower numbers previously], Clinton 9 [steady], Kucinich 8 [gaining], Richardson 6 [steady], Other 5, No Freakin' Clue 4, Dodd 2 [the poll was posted a day before the IAFF endorsement], Biden 1 [steady], and Gravel 1 [steady, 167 votes separate Biden and Gravel].

Is Edwards pulling out of Nevada?

If he is, it's a mistake: ["Edwards Opts to Redirect Nevada Staff"] and ["Edwards Lowers Nevada Status"]. I would probably bet that the campaign's comments are correct on this but I have to wonder. It seems to be in a bit of disarray right now at a time when it shouldn't be, but, the flip of this is that it shouldn't be that surprising when you consider what is going on out here in the real world.
The Edwards campaign has some good people. But, as I've already noted on this blog, they seem a tad rudderless at times. This can sometimes happen in a campaign. You can't be 100 percent everyday. And, it is still early ... although time is starting to run out. I don't have a lot of detail about the ground game here in New Hampshire right now and I can't explain why. I do, however, sense an unease about the whole thing right now.
In addition, if someone is going to knock Hillary down a few pegs, and end the air of inevitability, it will have to be someone like Edwards [Obama is finding his own ways to peg himself down]. Pretty much, everyone else is out of it. Richardson has a very slim long shot but I agree with most perceptions that he is running to be vice president [I do, however, happen to like some of his more conservative stances, like his comments on taxes and gun ownership].
What is shocking about this though is that as a candidate, Edwards is really on top of his game right now. In forums and debates, he is straightforward and pointed, and that might be why he isn't holding up out there, too.

Sidebar: Let's look at some poll numbers from the last two weeks. The good news for Edwards ... the Iowa remains: Edwards 30, Hillary 22, Obama 18. But look elsewhere. New Hampshire: Clinton 37, Obama 22, Edwards 14. Florida: Clinton 40, Obama 20, Edwards 16; Michigan: Hillary 45, Obama 26, Edwards 16. South Carolina: Clinton 36, Obama 33, Edwards 12. North Carolina: Clinton and Edwards 29, Obama 23; Georgia: Clinton 35, Obama 25, Edwards 17. Missouri: Clinton 40, Edwards 22, Obama 15. California: Clinton 51, Obama 27, Edwards 14. When does the "Stop Hillary" movement start?

John Edwards, unfortunately, might be scaring some people away with his talking points. He is on all cylinders. He is jabbing at the important things which need to be fixed - tackling the poverty problem, standing up for American workers, figuring out what to do with the health care system [something Hillary royally effed up back in 1993 when Bill Clinton had an elected MANDATE to fix the problem], going after lobbyists and attempting to limit their influence over public policy, etc. These issues aren't just about fixing the nation either. It's about reforming the Democratic Party, too, something folks like me have been writing about for close to 20 years.
But pulling folks out of Nevada, if it is true, is a mistake ... unless, of course, you're sending them to Florida and Michigan, which seem hellbent on getting in front of everyone.

Local reporters should delve deeper into issues
As the 2008 election starts to really kick into gear, there will be a lot of folks discussing the role of the media in covering the election. In fact, many of the discussions have already started. Here is one, sponsored by the Suburban Newspapers of America, which mentions that reporters and editors should delve deeper into the issues around the campaign: ["Covering the 2008 Elections"]. One of the difficult things about being involved in community journalism and covering national elections is that most don't have anything to do with the purpose of your journalism. Unless you live in a state that has an early primary or caucus, there is not going to be much coverage about the election. Community journalists will focus on the community, which often doesn't involve the national campaigns. In many ways, it is very difficult to localize national issues. But, it doesn't mean reporters and editors should not try.

2008 Senate race
A few quick notes on the 2008 Senate race here in New Hampshire:
First, Steve Marchand had a fund-raising effort on Daily Kos the other day. According to the ActBlue link, 34 people ponyed up $1,205. Another challenger to Sen. John Sununu, Jay Buckey, the former astronaut, has decided to refuse PAC donations and all other special interest donations, according to an email sent out by his campaign manager, Karen Liott Hill. Buckey has raised $5,505 via ActBlue. Katrina Swett has raised $50 via the online posting board.
The Concord Monitor's "Capital Beat" column this morning posted some numbers, forwarded by campaign reps. involved in the race. Swett is reporting passing the $1M mark for the first two quarters of the year. Marchand's rep. says he is on track to bring in about $100k for the second quarter. Hill, Buckey's rep., says he has raised $10k and loaned or given his campaign $27k. Granted, his campaign really only just started. The column also talks about Sununu's polling problems and a little bit about the Draft Shaheen "movement": ["Winners, losers and an MVP"].

Shea-Porter votes against Fairness Doctrine
Renegade liberal Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, NH CD 1, voted against reinstating the Fairness Doctrine earlier this week: ["Final Vote Results 599"]. The amendment stated that the FCC would be barred from requiring broadcasters to air balanced opinions. An Aye vote was supporting the amendment. I'm shocked by this. Either she doesn't know about or understand the issue, didn't understand that an Aye vote meant she was voting against reinstatement of the Fairness Doctrine, or she needs to be educated on the issue. I've requested space in the New Hampshire Union Leader to write a comprehensive column about the Fairness Doctrine, why it is important, and why unbalanced talk radio is harming our state. Rep. Paul Hodes, of NH CD 2, voted No, meaning he thought it should be reinstated.
Monitor editor Ari Richter weighs in on the Fairness Doctrine here, reporting a dare Sean Hannity has reportedly made to Sen. Hillary Clinton: ["A dare worth taking"]. Clearly, not unlike Shea-Porter, Richter needs a bit of education on the issue.

NH Poll
I forgot to mention this earlier this week: Channel 7 in Boston and Suffolk University released a New Hampshire primary pool on Wednesday afternoon showing, not surprisingly, that Hillary and former Gov. Mitt Romney lead the state. But slip Al Gore into the mix, and Hillary plummets [calling Al Gore?]. Without Gore: Clinton 37 percent, Obama 19, Edwards and Richardson 9, 16 were Undecided. With Gore in, 29 percent of Clinton's support vanishes to Gore.
Over on the Republican side, it is a bit tighter: Romney has 26 percent, with Giuliani 22, and McCain and Thompson at 13, 17 were undecided. The poll revealed that Romney surge is "fueled by younger voters, ages 18 to 45."
Throw in an indie campaign by Mike Bloomberg, and the Democrats easily win New Hampshire in the general election, according to the poll. Bloomberg recorded 6 to 8 percent of likely voters.

Huckabee blogger conference call
I was invited to participate in this blogger conference call by Gov. Mike Huckbee: ["Huckabee Blogger Conference Call"]. Unfortunately, it happened at 9:30 last Tuesday morning ... which is a pretty bad time for me. So, I didn't call in. But, maybe next time. I was a bit surprised that I would even get invited to participate, considering the content of my blog. I would have asked him some pretty tough questions - like I do everyone. I hope to participate in the next one.

McCain wins straw poll
John McCain won tonight's Spartanburg, South Carolina straw poll in a squeaker: McCain 164, Giuliani 162, Duncan Hunter 158, Sam Brownback 85, Mitt Romney 80, Newt Gingrich 33 [via write-in, according to CNN], Mike Huckabee 21, Tom Tancredo 10, John Cox and Ron Paul received 4, Condi Rice 2 [via write-in, according to CNN]. Jim Gilmore and Tommy Thompson with 1, and some other guy, identified only as "Sanders," also received 1.
The big story here is, of course, Rep. Duncan Hunter's surprising third place showing, especially against better positioned - and funded - candidates like Brownback and Romney. Hunter is going to turn some heads in this race because he is a trade hawk. He could position himself as the Pat Buchanan of 2008. The top tier candidates, except maybe Giuliani, have clear free trade positions. Hunter is the only one who has voted against NAFTA and GATT/WTO. Conservative working class folks and Reagan Democrats in South Carolina, who are getting hammered by cheap imports from China, are going to remember this come Election Day.

Speaking of Buchanan, here is a recent column he released about NAFTA: ["Free Trade and Funny Math"].

Economic nationalism is the policy of rising powers, free trade the policy of declining powers. For great powers have ever regarded trade as an arena of struggle in the clash of nations. It is no accident all four presidents who made it to Mount Rushmore were protectionists.

This should be a lesson to all presidential candidates but it will be lost on most of them.

Some things to read ...

Here is some of the latest news from the 2008 campaign.
Dan Rather and Joe Klein talk about the primary campaign and the piles of money needed to compete: ["Rather: $1B is the one to beat in 2008"].
Congressional Quarterly has this about the cost of security: ["Tab for 2008 Candidate Security Could Soar, But Secret Service is Mainly On Call"].
Broadcasters are gleeful over the cash that they'll be getting, especially with a front-loaded process: ["Primary Cash Up For Grabs"].
Chuck Todd is writing for MSNBC now. Here is his latest on the campaign: ["2008 is not one campaign"].
The Hill, Todd's former employer, is reporting that Gov. Mike Huckabee is being pushed to run for Senate in his home state, noting that long-time Democratic Senator Mark Pryor is retiring: ["Some push for Huckabee to run for Senate, not president"]. Huckabee, the only Baptist minister running, isn't really turning on the evangelical sect. So, maybe he will opt for this instead.
As I have stated before, I don't want to get into national polls. They are really irrelevant. But there are some numbers deep inside this one which reveal some interesting trends - including evangelicals supporting pro-choice Republican Rudy Giuliani: ["Blacks Shift to Obama, Poll Finds"].
This guy says if Ralph runs again in 2008, he'll be with him: ["Pariah or Prophet?"].
The Peace & Freedom Party of California is looking for a candidate: ["Peace and Freedom Party Begins 2008 Presidential Search"].

Polls
Here are some state polls from Strategic Vision which show no surprises this early in the process.

In Wisconsin, Democrats leaned this way: Clinton 36, Obama 21, Edwards 17, Undecided 15, Clark 5, Biden and Richardson 2, and Dodd and Kucinich with 1. Republicans went with Giuliani at 26, Thompson - the former governor there - at 22, McCain and Undecided with 15, Gingrich 8, Romney 6, Brownback and Tancredo 2, with Gilmore, Hagel, Huckabee and Hunter with 1.

In Georgia, Giuliani led Republicans with 28, McCain 21, Undecided 16, Gingrich 14, Romney 8, Tancredo 4, Huckabee 3, Brownback 2, with Gilmore, Hagel, Hunter, and Thompson at 1. Democrats went with Clinton 28, Obama 25, Edwards 18, Undecided 17, Clark 5, Biden 3, Richardson 1, and Dodd and Kucinich with 1.

Lastly, these bloggers are also keeping track of things:
["NH2008"]
["Lost Nation"]
["2008 Central"]

2008 Roundup: The Nader Edition

Yup, he's back ... Well, maybe: ["Nader leaves '08 open, slams Hillary"]. It's funny that this story would make headlines today. I was just thinking about Ralph Nader yesterday and how I had not even seen a token story about whether or not he would run again After doing a Google, I hadn't really seen much, just promotion for the new documentary, "An Unreasonable Man." And then, poof, there it is. The token story. I like the fact that Nader noted Sen. Mike Gravel's campaign as an alternative to Hillary and some of the other candidates.
But is Ralph getting soft in his old age? Joshua Franks, the guy who wrote the excellent "Left Out! How Liberals Re-elected George W. Bush," seems to think so, after he finds out that Nader is back hobnobbing with The Nation folks again: ["Unsafe in Any Seas"]. Along with the new documentary, Nader also has a new book, "The Seventeen Traditions," about his upbringing along with tips for modern parents.

McCain gets into bed with the enemy: ["McCain's Advisers Once Made Ads That Drew His Ire"]. There was a bit about this in Vanity Fair or some other place, I don't remember, recently. But with Mike Murphy not available, I guess you have to look elsewhere.

Where's Sen. Paul Tsongas' panda bear when we need it?: ["Clinton Promises to End War if Elected"]. Oh, so this is what Nader was talking about. How Nixonian: Support the war and then campaign against the war with a solution to end the war which probably should have never been approved in the first place. Pathetic. She is like John Kerry all over again. Yikes!

And here's Willard Mitt Romney taking a shot at Hillary about Iran: ["Romney says Sen. Clinton 'timid' on Iran"]. Note to Mitt: Very few people in this country are truly worried about Iran. Do some polling and you'll learn something. The only folks who are worried about Iran are a handful of neocons and defense contractors. The rest of us out here don't give two figs about Iran. In addition, the majority of people of Iran are not interested in war either. They are interested in broadband Internet access, their cell phones, dancing in nightclubs and having a good time. Maybe it is time to come up with a real plan to solve these problems which doesn't amount to killing thousands of innocent people with money our government doesn't have.

Speaking of defense contractors, check out this story about the requested Pentagon budget for FY08: ["Record $622 Billion Budget Requested for the Pentagon"].

“It is the highest level of spending since the height of the Korean War,” said Steven Kosiak, a military budget expert with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a policy analysis organization here.

I missed "Meet the Press" today but John Edwards was on and talked about a lot of things, including health care: ["Edwards: raise taxes for healthcare"]. I'm beginning to wonder about weekend news and whether or not anyone is editing the stories which get logged in. It isn't "healthcare" it's "health care."

Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee seems to have a press problem, especially from a couple of locals who know him all too well: ["Arkansas Underdog"].

Mike Huckabee's campaign will be history soon, too, unless he learns to cool it. Which may not be possible for the Huck, given his showman's personality and rhetorical impulses. The man is a Baptist preacher and former radio broadcaster who may secretly yearn to be a stand-up comic. He can't pass up an opportunity to say something that sounds clever at the time, but then comes back to haunt him on Tim Russert's show. Our advice: Be careful out there, Brother Huckabee. Your presidential campaign is one careless wisecrack from being over.

I'm intrigued by Huckabee every since I got to meet him in Newington back in 2005. I found him to be unsettling ingratiating ... like Bill Clinton is ... except I didn't feel like I had to wash my hands after meeting the guy. He has accomplished a lot in Arkansas - especially considering what messes Jim Guy Tucker and Clinton left for him. It will be interesting to see what Huckabee brings to the trail while campaigning.

The New Hampshire Union Leader has an interesting angle ... trying to find office space in Manch!: ["Presidential race for real estate"]. Donna Brazile thinks Gore may run in 2008 after all: ["Gore ex-campaign chief wishes on her star"]. Meehan to leave Congress? That's the rumor: ["Meehan seen on short list for UMass"]. This kinda makes that Massachusetts redistricting piece I wrote a few weeks ago look even more interesting.

Polls
Yeah, it's early. But what the heck:

KOTV/Tulsa World in Oklahoma released a poll Saturday showing first, that the continuing mess in Iraq will be a key issue of 2008. On the GOP side, John McCain got 25 percent, with Rudy Giuliani at 17, Condi Rice at 16, and Newt Gingrich at 14. Over on the Dem's side, 28 percent picked Hillary Clinton, with John Edwards getting 23, Barack Obama getting 14, and Al Gore in fourth with single digits.

ARG has polls from Iowa and New Hampshire:

Iowa Dems: Clinton 35, Edwards 18, Obama 14, Undecided 13, Vilsack 12, Biden, Clark and Kucinich at 2, Dodd 1, Richardson 1, Gravel 0.
Iowa GOP: Giuliani 27, McCain 22, Gingrich 16, Undecided 15, Romney 11, Hagel 5, Huckabee 2, Brownback 1, with Gilmore, Hunter, Pataki, Paul, and Thompson at 0.

NH GOP: McCain 27, Romney and Giuliani at 20, Undecided 15, Gingrich 11, Hagel 4, Brownback and Tancredo at 1, with Gilmore, Hunter, Pataki, Paul, and Thompson at 0.
NH Dems: Clinton 39, Undecided 21, Obama 19, Edwards 13, Clark and Richardson at 2, and Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich at 1. Gravel had 0.

Survey USA had this New Hampshire poll earlier in the week: Giuliani 33, McCain 32, Romney 21, Other 11, Undecided 3; Clinton 40, Obama 25, Edwards 23, Other 9, Undecided 3.