Saturday, September 4, 2010

Is Ayotte cruising to victory?

It looks like it: ["Hampshire GOP Primary Survey (9/1/10)"].
Inside the poll, there is this:
Among all Republican voters, Kelly Ayotte leads Ovide Lamontagne by 16 points, 37% to 21%. Among independent voters, Kelly Ayotte has a 2 point lead on Bill Binnie, 26% to 24%, and Ovide Lamontagne is a close third with 21%.
In other words, the whole "Ayotte isn't conservative enough for Republicans" memo is totally out the window. She is cleaning Ovide's clock, by 16 points.
Interestingly, indie voters, who tend to trend a bit more liberal than Republicans up here, are virtually split evenly among the top three candidates. Ayotte even leads among "fiscal conservatives." Wow.
Unless some bomb is dropped during the next 10 days, Kelly Ayotte is probably going to be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. And if she wins, it's going to be a bloodbath match against Paul Hodes, with indie Chris Booth and Libertarian Ken Blevens, along for the ride.

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