Sunday, April 27, 2003

Quinnipiac University poll says Bush would win New York If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton challenged President George W. Bush in 2004, the not-so-native daughter would be on the short side of a 47 -- 44 percent split among New York voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Clinton has a 52 -- 36 percent approval rating and New York voters say 59 -- 37 percent that she should not run for President next year. President Bush has a 58 -- 37 percent approval in New York, up from 50 -- 44 percent in a February 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. "That a president fresh off a wartime win would poll higher than most wannabes isn't surprising. What will surprise many is that President Bush does so well against Sen. Clinton," said Maurice Carroll director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In 2000, Bush was so far behind in New York, he didn't even bother to campaign here.
"Meanwhile, New Yorkers want Hillary to stay home. They'd rather have her call Chappaqua home than to try going back to Pennsylvania Avenue." Bush is ahead of other leaders in the Democratic Presidential pack:
50 -- 38 percent over Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman;
50 -- 38 percent over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry;
49 -- 38 percent over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt.
As a result of the war in Iraq, 31 percent of New York State voters say they are more likely to vote for Bush for reelection, with 28 percent saying they are less likely and 38 percent saying their position hasn't changed. New York's senior Senator, Charles Schumer, has a 59 -- 22 percent approval rating, including 54 -- 31 percent among Republicans. From April 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 885 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.
I posted a poll here a couple of weeks ago showing Lieberman with a sizable lead in New York over his opponents but Bush showing 11 to 12 point leads is pretty shocking for a solid Democratic state with fiscal conservative leanings.

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