Late last week, there was some discussion on another blog about the low college student turnout in the New Hampshire primary, votes that were expected to buoy Barack Obama to a win in the state. As many have already said, the exact opposite happened: While college turnout was good and Obama did well in those towns, undecided women and last minute decision makers buoyed Hillary Clinton to the win, with Obama coming in a very close second. The turnout was a record.
As readers know, college turnout was on my mind too as the returns were coming in. Would there be enough in those communities to push Obama up over the 5,000-plus vote lead Clinton had over him before the state was called?
While thinking about it, I started looking at numbers from previous elections to see what expected numbers might be in a larger turnout race.
The main college towns here are Durham, Hanover, Keene, and Plymouth. Both Concord and Manchester have colleges but those tend to be commuter schools. There are some other satellite towns which have college students living in them - like Lebanon - but it is not considered "a college town."
Most of the students at Keene and Plymouth are in-state students. Both schools were out of session, so they probably voted in their hometowns which are scattered around the state. Durham is a mixed bag. While there are thousands of students from NH there, a lot of out-of-staters go there too. Dartmouth, in Hanover, has a ton of out-of-state students but students returned to class on Jan. 7, the day before the primary. Some of the other college students may have come back to work on campaigns or to follow the primary, but the bulk of out-of-state students were probably at their real homes for the break.
So, any candidate hoping that tens of thousands of college students would vote on primary day in these four towns would be wishing. It was not going to happen. And, the numbers pretty much show this to be true.
In Durham in 2004, about 6,000 people voted in the general election. In both the Republican and Democratic primaries, about 3,500 people voted, or a difference of 2,500 voters. In Hanover in 2004, about 6,600 people voted in the general election. About 5,800 voted this year in both contests. A lot closer between elections but still lighter. In Keene, more than 12,400 people voted in the 2004 general election while about 9,000 people voted in the primaries this year [a 3,400-plus difference]. And in Plymouth, about 3,500 voted in the 2004 election while about 2,300 voted in the 2008 primary, or about 1,200 less.
During the election returns, Scott Spradling of WMUR-TV was reporting live from the Clinton HQ and he stated that the campaign did not want to declare victory until those late towns reported, even though AP had already called the state for Clinton, with a 7,000 vote lead.
Clinton eventually won the primary by about 7,500 votes. The difference in turnout between the 2004 general election and the 2008 New Hampshire primary in those four towns was about 8,000 voters. So, in order for the turnout in the college towns to affect the race, it would have needed to be at 2004 levels and Obama would have needed every single one of those votes, a near impossibility.
In other words, it was not going to matter.
Keene reported relatively early so those numbers were on the board while the totals were being accumulated for the night. The other three towns came in later but as you can see, it still would not have been enough to make up the difference.
The issue of whether college students vote in their "real homes" or at their college homes has been a sticky issue in the state, especially in the wake of Kerry winning in 2004. Republicans were angry that college students were allowed to vote and they believed those numbers helped Kerry win the state [Kerry won here by more than 9,000 votes. Kerry beat Bush in Durham by more than 2,500 votes, in Hanover by more than 3,700 votes, in Keene by more than 4,300, and in Plymouth by more than 1,100 votes.
More than likely, even if all the college students in those towns were not allowed to vote in those towns, Kerry still would have won the state. If the Kerry college students could not vote, neither would the college Bush supporters. So, those totals would need to be subtracted from Bush. However, it would have been a much tighter election in New Hampshire than it was. But that isn't really the point for the state GOP, it was the principle of "permanent residency" versus "temporary residency" or college attendance.
State Republicans were also furious about the fact that they saw school buses from Massachusetts cities and towns busing voters around to locations in the southern part of the state during 2004. They accused local Dems of busing in people from Massachusetts to vote, abusing our same-day voter registration policy. The allegations were all over Boston talk radio at the time although nothing more came of the allegations.
There have also been rumors from people I know in Boston who claim there are people doing this. One activist I know has claimed that electrical workers have done this the last two election cycles. I don't know if this is true, but the accusation has been raised.
Of course, Democrats and union officials who were using the buses countered that the buses were rented for the day to assist with GOTV operations - not to stuff ballot boxes.
In 2005, the Legislature had a number of bills come up during the session, mostly forwarded by Republicans, to address the issue of tighter same-day registration policies as well as college kids voting. I covered a lot of the Election Committee hearings as a radio journalist during that time. Essentially the Republican's logic - and I have to agree with them slightly - is that dorm rooms in college towns are not homes. Out-of-state students live in other places and come to New Hampshire to go to school. So, they should vote absentee in their home states, not at their colleges.
In an effort to increase younger voter turnout nationally, a lot of college towns across the country have made it easier to vote in their towns, loosening registration requires.
In Massachusetts, for example, you don't have to show any proof of residency. However, the issue of easy registration leads to some consternation in swing states, as you can imagine. In New Hampshire, you used to have to show a utility bill or a license to vote and now, it looks like those requirements are no longer policy, opening up the state to massive fraud by anyone with the ability to organize such a fraud [I'm in the process of clarifying whether this is true or not].
But the question remains: Why should a student from New York vote in Hanover when all their stuff is in New York and their parents live in New York? In addition, if a student has received local college aid, and changes their voter registration, therefore, changing their residency, they could risk losing their college aid. This has been known to happen in the past.
The Legislature rejected all the measures forwarded and the issues have remained but it made for some interesting news stories and debates.
If we had a popular vote election, in would not matter where the college students voted. Since we have an Electoral College system, based on the state wins, it becomes an issue. Whether or not there is fraud is another issue entirely. New Hampshire has pretty loose rules when it comes to checking things, if you have the money to do it. Obviously, with so many people seeing things they cannot explain or do not understand, every step should be taken to double-check and make sure that things are legal.
As readers know, college turnout was on my mind too as the returns were coming in. Would there be enough in those communities to push Obama up over the 5,000-plus vote lead Clinton had over him before the state was called?
While thinking about it, I started looking at numbers from previous elections to see what expected numbers might be in a larger turnout race.
The main college towns here are Durham, Hanover, Keene, and Plymouth. Both Concord and Manchester have colleges but those tend to be commuter schools. There are some other satellite towns which have college students living in them - like Lebanon - but it is not considered "a college town."
Most of the students at Keene and Plymouth are in-state students. Both schools were out of session, so they probably voted in their hometowns which are scattered around the state. Durham is a mixed bag. While there are thousands of students from NH there, a lot of out-of-staters go there too. Dartmouth, in Hanover, has a ton of out-of-state students but students returned to class on Jan. 7, the day before the primary. Some of the other college students may have come back to work on campaigns or to follow the primary, but the bulk of out-of-state students were probably at their real homes for the break.
So, any candidate hoping that tens of thousands of college students would vote on primary day in these four towns would be wishing. It was not going to happen. And, the numbers pretty much show this to be true.
In Durham in 2004, about 6,000 people voted in the general election. In both the Republican and Democratic primaries, about 3,500 people voted, or a difference of 2,500 voters. In Hanover in 2004, about 6,600 people voted in the general election. About 5,800 voted this year in both contests. A lot closer between elections but still lighter. In Keene, more than 12,400 people voted in the 2004 general election while about 9,000 people voted in the primaries this year [a 3,400-plus difference]. And in Plymouth, about 3,500 voted in the 2004 election while about 2,300 voted in the 2008 primary, or about 1,200 less.
During the election returns, Scott Spradling of WMUR-TV was reporting live from the Clinton HQ and he stated that the campaign did not want to declare victory until those late towns reported, even though AP had already called the state for Clinton, with a 7,000 vote lead.
Clinton eventually won the primary by about 7,500 votes. The difference in turnout between the 2004 general election and the 2008 New Hampshire primary in those four towns was about 8,000 voters. So, in order for the turnout in the college towns to affect the race, it would have needed to be at 2004 levels and Obama would have needed every single one of those votes, a near impossibility.
In other words, it was not going to matter.
Keene reported relatively early so those numbers were on the board while the totals were being accumulated for the night. The other three towns came in later but as you can see, it still would not have been enough to make up the difference.
The issue of whether college students vote in their "real homes" or at their college homes has been a sticky issue in the state, especially in the wake of Kerry winning in 2004. Republicans were angry that college students were allowed to vote and they believed those numbers helped Kerry win the state [Kerry won here by more than 9,000 votes. Kerry beat Bush in Durham by more than 2,500 votes, in Hanover by more than 3,700 votes, in Keene by more than 4,300, and in Plymouth by more than 1,100 votes.
More than likely, even if all the college students in those towns were not allowed to vote in those towns, Kerry still would have won the state. If the Kerry college students could not vote, neither would the college Bush supporters. So, those totals would need to be subtracted from Bush. However, it would have been a much tighter election in New Hampshire than it was. But that isn't really the point for the state GOP, it was the principle of "permanent residency" versus "temporary residency" or college attendance.
State Republicans were also furious about the fact that they saw school buses from Massachusetts cities and towns busing voters around to locations in the southern part of the state during 2004. They accused local Dems of busing in people from Massachusetts to vote, abusing our same-day voter registration policy. The allegations were all over Boston talk radio at the time although nothing more came of the allegations.
There have also been rumors from people I know in Boston who claim there are people doing this. One activist I know has claimed that electrical workers have done this the last two election cycles. I don't know if this is true, but the accusation has been raised.
Of course, Democrats and union officials who were using the buses countered that the buses were rented for the day to assist with GOTV operations - not to stuff ballot boxes.
In 2005, the Legislature had a number of bills come up during the session, mostly forwarded by Republicans, to address the issue of tighter same-day registration policies as well as college kids voting. I covered a lot of the Election Committee hearings as a radio journalist during that time. Essentially the Republican's logic - and I have to agree with them slightly - is that dorm rooms in college towns are not homes. Out-of-state students live in other places and come to New Hampshire to go to school. So, they should vote absentee in their home states, not at their colleges.
In an effort to increase younger voter turnout nationally, a lot of college towns across the country have made it easier to vote in their towns, loosening registration requires.
In Massachusetts, for example, you don't have to show any proof of residency. However, the issue of easy registration leads to some consternation in swing states, as you can imagine. In New Hampshire, you used to have to show a utility bill or a license to vote and now, it looks like those requirements are no longer policy, opening up the state to massive fraud by anyone with the ability to organize such a fraud [I'm in the process of clarifying whether this is true or not].
But the question remains: Why should a student from New York vote in Hanover when all their stuff is in New York and their parents live in New York? In addition, if a student has received local college aid, and changes their voter registration, therefore, changing their residency, they could risk losing their college aid. This has been known to happen in the past.
The Legislature rejected all the measures forwarded and the issues have remained but it made for some interesting news stories and debates.
If we had a popular vote election, in would not matter where the college students voted. Since we have an Electoral College system, based on the state wins, it becomes an issue. Whether or not there is fraud is another issue entirely. New Hampshire has pretty loose rules when it comes to checking things, if you have the money to do it. Obviously, with so many people seeing things they cannot explain or do not understand, every step should be taken to double-check and make sure that things are legal.
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